While much of the UK prepares for scorching temperatures and the potential for the fourth official heatwave of the summer, 11 counties across England are expected to miss out entirely on the coming blast of heat.
According to new projections from WX Charts, based on advanced modelling from the Global Forecast System (GFS), temperatures could surge to between 30°C and 32°C starting Friday, July 18. If these high temperatures persist for at least three days, the official heatwave threshold, as defined by the Met Office, may once again be broken.
However, not everyone will be basking in the heat. The latest forecasts show that some major regions of England will fall short of the required temperature markers for a heatwave. The counties expected to miss out include:
Greater London
West Midlands
Greater Manchester
Lancashire
Devon
Dorset
Hampshire
Durham
Northumberland
Cumbria
Yorkshire
Instead, these areas are likely to see a mix of cloud cover, showers, and, in some cases, much cooler conditions.
The Met Office’s outlook for Friday said: “Warm and humid with sunny spells for many. Showers developing with a chance of thunder for northwest Wales, central and northern England and east Scotland. Very warm in the east.” But as the weekend approaches, the weather is forecast to turn more unsettled.
From Saturday through Monday, conditions are expected to shift, especially in the north and west.
The Met Office added: “Turning cooler this weekend with widespread thundery showers. Remaining unsettled into the new week.”
BBC Weather’s latest forecast supports this outlook, stating that Saturday will be “a very wet day with heavy rain spreading northwards across England and Scotland.”
Wales and Northern Ireland may catch the occasional sunny spell but are still at risk of intermittent showers. Sunday and Monday are also expected to bring a mix of sunshine and locally heavy, thundery downpours.
While southern and eastern parts of the country may briefly enjoy summer’s return, much of England will need to keep the umbrellas close, at least for now.