The odds of Sir Keir Starmer leaving No 10 have increased following an explosive 12 hours in Downing Street, where rumours are swirling of ministers planning to oust the prime minister. A flurry of speculation that the PM’s job could be under threat was fuelled by a briefing from Number 10 on Tuesday night in which allies of Sir Keir warned that any attempt to oust him would be disastrous. Health Secretary Wes Streeting was named as a potential plotter to remove the PM; however, he has denied the rumours.
As a result, Mr Streeting is now joint-favourite alongside Nigel Farage to become the next UK Prime Minister, according to betting site Star Sports. The Health Secretary sits at 4/1 to succeed Sir Keir, cut from 11/2. Despite the PM being reportedly ready to take on any rebel Labour challengers, his odds have been cut to 12/1 from 16/1 to exit Downing Street this year, and now odds-on at 5/6 from 5/4 to leave at any point in 2026.
Recent reports suggest a growing number of MPs are unhappy with the Prime Minister’s performance, and YouGov put his net favourability rating at -51 last month in a damning indictment of public opinion.
If Sir Keir were to be replaced, Star Sports has placed five Labour politicians as top contenders to take over. The most likely candidate is Wes Streeting with 4/1, and recently resigned Angela Rayner takes the second spot, with odds of 9/1.
The Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, sits in third place at 10/1, while Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper comes in at fourth place with 11/1. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood rounds off the top five with odds of 12/1.
William Kedjanyi, Political Betting Analyst at Star Sports, said: “Last night’s statements from 10 Downing Street that Keir Starmer was ready and willing to fight a potential leadership challenge has ironically fired the starting gun on a leadership contest, with a huge amount of speculation overnight and this morning, leading to a fair amount of movement in our next UK Prime Minister market.
“Nigel Farage and Andy Burnham have both been pushed out to 4/1 and 10/1 respectively given neither are Labour MPs. Wes Streeting joins Farage at the top of the market at 4/1 having pushed back strongly against accusations of ousting Starmer in his morning media rounds on Sky and Radio 4, although some will believe there’s no smoke without fire.
“Starmer has also shortened into 12/1 from 16/1 to be replaced as Labour leader before 2025 is up, whilst an exit in 2026 looks far more likely at 5/6.”