Reform UK looks set to win a Labour stronghold in London at the next general election in what would be a major blow to Sir Keir Starmer, polling shows.
Modelling generated by Nowcast shows Nigel Farage’s Reform UK beating Labour in Dagenham and Rainham, where Sir Keir’s party has been elected for years.
The model puts Reform on a 3.1% majority with 34.4% of the vote compared to 31.3% for Labour and the Conservatives trailing on 18.1%.
Nowcast’s results also show the neighbouring constituency, Hornchurch and Upminster, tilting towards Reform UK, with a 1.8% majority and 36.2% of the vote.
Mr Farage’s populist party is aiming to upset British politics, with Ladbrokes this week putting him at 5/2 favourite to succeed Sir Keir at No.10, ahead of Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch.
Reform UK has recently seen some top Tory defections, with Conservative Home founder Tim Montgomerie and billionaire property tycoon, Nick Candy, switching support.
Aggregate polling shows Reform UK would narrowly beat the Conservatives into second place on 34.5% of the vote and oust the incumbent MP for Hornchurch and Upminster, Julia Lopez.
Nick Palmer was Reform UK’s candidate at the general election in July when he gained 13,317 votes compared to Ms Lopez’s 15,260. He told Express.co.uk: “The Tories have lost touch with the backbone of Britain. They’ve wasted the past 14 years moving more and more to the left, picking policies that are more suited to be Liberal Democrat.
“The hard working people of Hornchurch and Upminster are fed up with not being listened to and not getting a fair deal.”
Ms Lopez saw her share of the vote crash from 65.8% at the 2019 general election, to 32.5% in 2024, with figures suggesting Reform UK took a sizeable chunk of the vote from the Tories.
Labour held on to Dagenham and Rainham in July, with 42.6% of the vote compared with Reform UK which secured 24.2% and beat the Tories into third place on 17.8%.
Well known as the home of Ford’s Dagenham car plant, the town was also a location for French pharma giant, Sanofi-Aventis, and battery maker Ever Ready. Much of the Becontree Estate, once Europe’s largest public housing project, lies in Dagenham.
While Dagenham and Rainham has been held by Labour since the seat was formed in 2010, Sir Keir’s party saw its lowest ever majority in Dagenham in 2019 when Conservative candidate Damian White was narrowly beaten by Jon Cruddas during an election led by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson and dominated by Brexit.
Dagenham forms part of the London Borough of Barking and Dagenham, which voted 62.4% in favour of Brexit in 2016. Upminster and Hornchurch fall under the London Borough of Havering where 69.7% voted for Britain to exit the European Union.
Reform UK insiders are said to be quietly rejoicing at the Nowcast forecast, with one telling GB News it presents a “huge” opportunity to realign the centre-right in British politics.
The same forecast shows Reform gaining a number of other seats, including Folkestone and Hythe, Chatham and Aylesford, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, South West Norfolk and Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North.
In all, the insurgent group looks set to win some 30 seats, including the five it claimed in July.
National polling puts Labour and the Tories at about 26% each with Reform at around 14% come the next election. Were Mr Farage to become the next prime minister, analysts say it would likely be a result of a hung parliament.
