Reform UK hopes to win a historic victory this week and snatch a heartland constituency away from Labour. Caerphilly has voted Labour in every election to Westminster since 1918 but polling suggests Nigel Farage’s party has a slight lead over pro-independence Plaid Cymru ahead of Thursday’s Welsh Parliament by-election.
A Reform win would intensify fears in Labour circles that Sir Keir Starmer is on course for humiliation in May’s mega-elections to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and councils across England.
For Reform, the by-election is an opportunity to test the success of efforts to bring a new degree of professionalism to its campaigning machine.
Candidate Llŷr Powell, 30, has high hopes Reform will seize control of the Welsh Parliament – also known as the Senedd – in May.
He said: “Our goal is to take control of the Welsh Government – not just win the largest number of seats. And we want to use those levers of power to make the lives of the people of Wales better.”
Mr Powell said getting supporters – some of whom he said have been disillusioned with long-established parties and not voted for many years – to cast their ballot on the day is a key challenge. But he said he had noticed a change in the nature of support.
Local voters are no longer lending their vote to Reform because they are angry with Labour, he claimed. Rather, they are now proud to identify with the party.
“I think Reform is now the major party in Wales,” he said.
A senior Welsh Labour figure described the situation as a “****storm,” saying: “It’s difficult to look like a insurgent, radical party when you’ve been in power for Westminster for 15 months [and in] the Welsh Senedd for 26 years.”
The senior source blasted Labour in the Welsh Parliament for an “obsession with constitutional reform,” saying: “They forgot about education, they forgot about health, to a certain extent they forgot about transport… They were more interested in a power-grab than they were in actually getting down and delivering and the problem is now that the chickens are coming home to roost.”
Reform’s Mr Powell is urging people who have abandoned Labour to make the trip to the polling station.
“It’s actually getting out there and voting on the day that matters,” he said.
A Survation poll put Reform in first place in the constituency with 42% support, ahead of Plaid Cymru (38%) and Labour (12%).
Mr Powell said he wanted Wales to become the first “common sense” nation under a Reform Government.
“For me, winning the next Senedd elections is a priority and taking control of the Government must be our goal, and nothing else matters,” he said.
Reform already has one Member of Senedd, Laura Anne Jones, who defected from the Conservatives. But a win in Caerphilly would encourage the party to believe it can win hard-fought contests in a nation where Labour has been the biggest party in every Westminster and Senedd election for more than a century.
Mr Powell batted away the question of whether he would like to be the first non-Labour First Minister
“Right now, the priority here in Wales for us is building a team,” he said. “One person can’t fix Wales; it’s going to be a cabinet that we have to collect together.”
Mr Farage, he said, commanded respect on the doorsteps.
“Even if they don’t agree with something he’s saying, they believe that he believes it,” he said. “That’s what other politicians don’t have – he’s very authentic.”