As I wrote on Tuesday, Reeves needs a miracle to bail her out, and there was a slim chance she might get it today.
But for that to happen, Bank of England (BoE) governor Andrew Bailey had to show a bit of pluck and foresight.
I don’t know where I thought he might find it, because he’s never displayed it before. And he didn’t today, either.
In my view, the BoE’s rate-setting monetary policy committee (MPC) should have gone big.
This was the first MPC meeting since the since US president Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs on April 2 sent global markets into a death spiral
It’s also happened to be the day that Reeves was slammed for her handling of the UK economy, which has left her in danger of breaking her fiscal rules.
This was the BoE’s chance to rise to the occasion.
It should have slashed base rates by 0.5%, it would have been a statement to markets, and the general public.
A big 0.5% cut would have said the worst is over, we’re on your side, things can get better.
Of course it fell short. The BoE always does.
What on earth made me think Bailey would do any of those things, I can’t tell you. Instead, we got the measly 0.25% cut everybody expected.
Haven’t MPC members seen the news lately? We’re in a mess. A big rate cut wouldn’t have turned everything round, but it would have been a rare piece of good news.
Bailey was slow to notice the inflation threat back in 2022, and he’s been equally slow to respond to the slide in prices.
Consumer price inflation fell to 2.8% in February and 2.6% in March, only slightly above the BoE’s target rate.
True, the Bank of England predicts rates will rise to 3.7% during the summer, but I have two things to say about that.
First, given that I’ve previously called the BoE the world’s worst economic forecaster, we shouldn’t put too much faith in any of its predictions.
Second, the BoE predicting interest rates will fall pretty sharpish to 2% thereafter. And here’s a third thing.
Inflation has been pushed up by rising energy, water and food prices. Higher interest rates won’t affect any of those things.
What they would do is give families a bit of breathing space, especially those on variable rate mortgages, or coming off a long-term fixed rate.
It would also give businesses a lift, cutting borrowing costs and helping them to absorb Rachel Reeves vicious budget tax hikes.
But no. We got just a measly quarter point cut. As we always do.
So bank rate has crept down to 4.25%, as a time when the normally sluggish European Central Bank has taken prompt and necessary action.
Eurozone interest rates are now down to 2.25%. That’s a full two percentage points higher than our own.
Today’s cut will save somebody with a £100,000 mortgage about £250 a year, or roughly £20 a month. Better than a kick in the teeth, I guess, but not far off.
It’s a massive missed opportunity.
The next MPC meeting is on June 19. Right now, markets don’t even expect any cut at all next month.
The next move is expected in August, again of 0.25%, with two more to follow in September and December.
If that’s correct, rates will be down to 3.5% by year end.
This is agony. It’ll hurt Rachel Reeves, and more importantly, it’ll hurt the rest of us. But what else did we expect from Bailey and the BoE?