Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch, this is the worst way possible to go into a Bank Holiday weekend. Reform UK has lived up to its hype. The people who told pollsters they would vote for Nigel Farage’s latest party were not kidding. This pint-loving populist succeeded in driving people across England to the polling station, delivering a democratic shock that has left Labour and the Conservative reeling. Reform has snatched a Westminster seat away from Labour, beaten the Conservatives to win the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty and taken control of councils. It now wields real power.
This is a nightmare for Remainers who hoped Mr Farage would wander off the political stage once Brexit was delivered. For them, the worst may be yet to come. Far from lowering expectations, Reform talks up the possibility that Mr Farage will lead the country.
As Dame Andrea Jenkyns said after winning Greater Lincolnshire: “I know one day he will make a great prime minister.”
Reform can no longer be dismissed as four blokes in suits who are good at soundbites – not least because they have been joined on the green benches of the Commons by Sarah Pochin, who took Runcorn and Helsby by a mere six votes.
Tory and Labour strategists will hope Reform will implode. Reform attracts mavericks who did not fit into the traditional parties; Ukip was notorious for splits and there will be delight and relief in Westminster if Reform dissolves into a frenzy of fratricide as it thrashes out policies.
But the rise of Reform will make it harder for Sir Keir and Mrs Badenoch to keep their own parties united.
Those on the Tory Right will say Mrs Badenoch needs to take a much tougher line on immigration to compete with Reform; there will be more calls for a pact between the two parties. Meanwhile, Left-wingers are blasting Sir Keir for a raft of unpopular policies they say have driven away traditional supporters.
Change has come to the UK. Citizens who are aghast at Labour’s record but are still angry with the Conservatives punished the establishment by voting Reform. Mr Farage must now prove his party can improve lives so he stands a chance of breaking into Number 10.
