While Ukraine and Gaza have dominated headlines over the last few years, the chances of an even greater war grow in Asia. China has not relinquished its designs over the nearby island democracy of Taiwan, a commitment leader Xi Jinping has made and likely needs something to say about come the next Chinese Communist Party (CCP) congress in 2027. Beijing also continues to spar with another US ally – the Philippines – over the critical South China Sea. Furthermore, while China and India are currently a temporary thawing of relations, the border dispute between the two has gone nowhere.
For China, this is all about ‘encirclement’. Taiwan sits in the middle of the ‘first island chain’ of Western allied states which currently blocks the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) from projecting power into the Pacific. If China cannot do that, it cannot achieve Xi Jinping’s longstanding goal of achieving geopolitical parity with the US. China cannot afford to let this slip.
Nor can the US however afford to let this happen. China dominating Asia would wreck America’s alliance networks in the region and could even undermine the dollar’s dominance since a key reason for this is the US Navy’s role as guardian of the sea lanes.
What then for the UK? Aside from the economic impact on a major trading nation of a global war erupting in Asia, the UK – as the second most powerful Western military – would find it hard not to be dragged in.
Sure, the UK was able to sit out the Vietnam War. But war this time would be different, especially if both America and nearby Australia are dragged in. At the very least, the UK would likely be a major arms supplier.
The recent debacle over giving away the UK Chagos Islands – home to the critical UK-US bomber base on Diego Garcia – to the Maldives, a major Chinese ally, hints at how the UK may be unable to avoid joining in.
Underfunded and demoralised, tales of the British Armed Forces unpreparedness for a major conflict are innumerable, even with new commitments to spend 2.5% of economic output on the UK military.
Cut to the bone since the Cold War, this new global situation however demands greater spending commitments both on troops and equipment. Ensuring UK success in weapons development is also key, as is securing access to vital raw materials.
Climate change may be a real danger, but nothing should compromise Britain’s energy security in this current climate. Guaranteeing access to foods, water, energy and other key inputs are all of the utmost importance.
The UK likely cannot enjoy splendid isolation in this volatile era. Instead, Britain must prepare for the strong possibility of war.
