What happens in America doesn’t stay in America.
The outcome of the US presidential election matters to the whole world.
The reason: Whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins on 5 November will have huge consequences for the course of global affairs. Nowhere will this be more visible than in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Let’s start with Ukraine. For two and a half years now, Ukrainians have been defending themselves against Russian invasion. It’s been a stalemate so far.
If Vice President Harris wins the election, we can expect the US to keep supporting Ukraine.
Harris has insisted she wouldn’t countenance defeat for Kyiv. “I will work to ensure Ukraine prevails in this war,” she said. As such, a President Harris might lift the US veto on Ukraine using Western missiles to strike inside Russia.
By contrast, if former President Trump wins, the US might stop supporting Ukraine.
Trump has been straightforward about his desire to end the war. “We’re going to very much work with both parties to try and get this settled,” he said. “It has to end.”
What that end looks like is fuzzy. Trump has refused to reveal any details about his “plan.”
But his vice presidential nominee, JD Vance, has hinted it could entail creating a “demilitarised zone” in the territory conquered by Russia. Ukraine could also be barred from NATO and forced to adopt a position of neutrality.
Harris has warned against such a deal with Russia.
“There are some in my country who would instead force Ukraine to give up large parts of its sovereign territory, who would demand that Ukraine accept neutrality, and would require Ukraine to forego security relationships with other nations,” Harris said, in a jibe to Trump.
She added, “These proposals are the same as those of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin. And let us be clear: They are not proposals for peace. Instead, they are proposals for surrender, which is dangerous and unacceptable.”
When it comes to the Middle East, however, Harris and Trump are more aligned.
Both candidates are on the side of Israel against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Harris has pledged that she “will always stand up for Israel’s right to defend itself.” Trump, meanwhile, has boasted that he is “the best friend that Israel has ever had.”
Still, both candidates have spoken in favour of ending hostilities in Gaza as soon as possible. Harris has called for “a ceasefire” while Trump has said that “you have to finish it up and do it quickly.”
Both Harris and Trump have also made clear they see Iran as the number one threat in the Middle East. Trump’s enmity towards Tehran is well documented and goes back to his presidency.
But, earlier this month, Harris didn’t mince her words either. Asked which country was America’s “greatest adversary,” the Vice President retorted that “there’s an obvious one in mind, which is Iran.”
Finally, both Harris and Trump have pledged to prevent Iran from getting the nuclear bomb.
That’s not to say they would go about it in the same way. Harris would favour diplomacy, although she has said “all options are on the table,” whereas Trump would support Israel hitting Iranian nuclear facilities in the first instance.
Come 5 November, we’ll have a clearer idea of what American foreign policy will look like during the next four years. That the whole world is watching this presidential election is a reminder that, despite everything, the US remains the global hegemon.
