The big problem with war as policy is that the outcome is unpredictable. All too often, the leader launching it gets more than they bargained for.
Think Napoleon, Hitler, Putin.
Trump hasn’t unleashed a shooting war, thankfully, but yesterday’s trade tariffs could inflict almost as much damage on the global economy.
With a sweeping 10% universal baseline tariff and additional reciprocal tariffs targeting more than 60 countries, the consequences will be far-reaching and painful.
No serious economist believes this will benefit anyone, but Trump insists it will be beautiful for the US.
I think that’s unlikely to be the case.
The idea behind the tariffs is simple: punish countries that have trade surpluses with the US and force them into better deals.
However, the impact will be devastating, and American consumers will be right on the front line.
By making imports more expensive, Trump tariffs will drive up the cost of everything from electronics to cars, sparking a fresh bout of inflation that will hit ordinary Americans the hardest.
Trump has already sunk the US technology stock boom, with Tesla shares down 25% this year, while silicon chip maker Nvidia, Google-owner Alphabet and Amazon have all plunged.
Rather than reviving US manufacturing, his tariffs are more likely to stifle innovation, reduce competitiveness and trigger retaliatory measures from other nations, further destabilising the global economy.
Trump has made a colossal mistake, one he’ll never admit, but millions of ordinary Americans will.
They won’t be the only ones.
The UK got off relatively lightly with a 10% tariff. But even this is bad news. British exporters will suffer, prices will rise and inflation will revive.
Which is the last thing PM Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves need. Let alone hard-pressed taxpayers, who will pay the price in the autumn Budget.
The EU finds itself in an even worse position, with 20% tariffs slapped on eurozone exports. This could be the biggest economic shock the bloc has faced since the last one.
Trump’s aggression has given Europe one unexpected boost. His tough stance on Ukraine forced Germany to accelerate rearmament, which might rejuvenate its industrial base.
But that silver lining is now overshadowed by the economic blow of these new tariffs.
So far, all I can see are losers. But there is one clear winner emerging. And it’s just the last country Trump should want to benefit.
While the US, UK, and EU brace for economic fallout, China is poised to capitalise.
Trump may see China as America’s biggest enemy, but his policies are only making it stronger. His tariffs have driven rival Asian powers China, Japan and South Korea closer together, forging new economic alliances that will shift the balance of power in global trade.
Unbelievably, China is now able to position itself as a defender of the rules-based global trading system, despite decades of rampant copyright theft, bullying and spying.
As the US shafts friend and foe alike, Beijing can now pose as a stabilising force.
It’s incredible. And worrying.
China remains an increasingly authoritarian state with expansionist ambitions and plans to do to Taiwan what it’s already done to Hong Kong.
Trump’s trade war was meant to punish China, but instead he’s handed Beijing a golden opportunity.
As the US isolates itself, China cements its role as the leader of global trade. Trump may have framed this battle as one to protect American workers, but in the end, there is only one true winner: Premier Xi Jinping.
