One of the country’s leading election experts has warned Nigel Farage that he has no excuses not to win hundreds of councillors in May’s upcoming local elections. Voters across England will go to the polls on May 1 to elect thousands of local politicians, in their first opportunity to have their say on the Government.
A total of 1,641 seats are up for grabs across England. Local election guru Lord Hayward has revealed how many seats each party should realistically be aiming for. He said the Tories, Labour and Reform have no excuse not to achieve about 450 councillors each. While he will make further forecasts closer to the elections, which will give a more accurate marker of whether each party has under or over-performed, Lord Hayward said that even with the cancellation of elections in Reform strongholds such as Essex and Norfolk, the party should be winning hundreds of seats given current polling.
He told journalists at a Policy Exchange that Reform cannot use being a new party as an excuse.
Referring to previous Ukip successes in the 2013 local elections, Lord Hayward explained: “A lot of people are saying ‘it’s new’. It isn’t actually new.
“There are council by-elections that have taken place in the last few months where you can compare them directly with 2013 and it’s striking how similar the results have been.
“You can probably reasonably argue that a party should have as a target – Conservative, Labour and Reform – of around 450 to say they’re doing reasonably well.
“Somewhere around that 450-500 mark should be a target.”
He dismissed claims that the recent row between Nigel Farage and fellow MP Rupert Lowe will affect Reform UK’s support in May, saying the Reform leader “hasn’t been substantially damaged” by the fallout.
He added that Reform’s best chance of winning overall control of a council is in Lincolnshire due to its high Brexit vote. However, it also stands a chance with the Hull and East Yorkshire mayoralty.
Lord Hayward, a Conservative peer, suggested the Tories are on course for a drubbing in May because the council seats up for grabs were last elected at the peak of support for Boris Johnson.
In the 2021 local elections, when the former prime minister was receiving huge support following the rollout of the Covid vaccine, the Tories won a whopping 65.8% of the council seats up for election.
Lord Hayward warned his party that the Tories would be lucky to hold 40% of those seats this time around, given the state of the polls and last year’s General Election wipeout.
However, in a note of optimism, he suggested recent results in Reform strongholds suggest the Tories can hold back the tide provided they have a strong ground game.
He cited a recent council by-election in Tiptree, Colchester, where Reform did “markedly worse” than UKIP achieved in 2014-15.
“What seems to be happening is if the Conservatives can take them on in terms of organisation, then Reform are not making that much progress,” he said.
