The nation’s capital plays host to a pair of top-15 programs for Sunday’s matinee between No. 9 Virginia and No. 12 Arkansas.
With a sample size of two games on the books, the Cavaliers enter as 2.5-point favorites after drowning Drexel and Northeastern by 25 and 29 points, respectively.
John Calipari’s Razorbacks cruised past Arkansas-Pine Bluff in its season opener, forcing 24 turnovers and scoring a program-record 45 fastbreak points. Arkansas brings a defense built around length, aggressive ball pressure and disrupting passing lanes.
Virginia’s strength is its versatile frontcourt, led by Thijs De Ridder, who can score inside, stretch the floor from 3-point range and create offense in transition. That may be more than enough to skate by a couple of CAA mid-major teams, though the concern facing Arkansas is ball security.
Arkansas vs. Virginia prediction, best bet
The Cavaliers committed 14 turnovers against Drexel, including seven by point guard Chance Mallory.
Arkansas meets them having averaged 23.6 points off turnovers across the UAPB game and its two preseason contests. In fact, the Razorbacks scored 45 fastbreak points against UAPB, the program’s highest single-game total since the statistic began being tracked in 2011-12. That mark followed a season in which the Razorbacks ranked second nationally with 18.84 fastbreak points per game.
For what it’s worth, the Razorbacks rank fourth overall in Bart Torvik’s defensive turnover percentage.
It’s not to say Virginia isn’t necessarily opposed to playing fast under second-year coach Ryan Odom, having averaged 80.4 points last season. But, up-tempo play makes this a dangerous spot for the Cavaliers.
Arkansas will need to find a solution for defending De Ridder, who opened his season with 24 points and nine rebounds. That could look something like Calipari rotating Cooper Bowser, Miikka Muurinen and Maper Maker onto the versatile 6-foot-9 scorer to keep things fresh throughout the game.
And even if Arkansas’ half-court offense stalls, it can manufacture points through free throws, hitting 30 of 42 attempts in its opener.
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On the narrative front, Arkansas freshman Jordan Smith Jr. returns to his hometown while the Razorbacks look to establish themselves against an ACC elite.
This is Virginia’s game to lose, but Arkansas is an attractive enough underdog to take the points.
THE PLAY: Arkansas +2.5 (-105, Fanatics)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
