The Golden State Valkyries are one win away from a stunning WNBA Finals victory. The Atlanta Dream are one loss away from a crushing championship defeat.
Despite all the noise heading into Game 6 of this series about the venue and game time, the stakes are quite clear — we’ll either see a championship celebration on Thursday or a Game 7 on Saturday.
Despite losing back-to-back games, the Dream are 4.5-point favorites ahead of Game 6, but the more interesting number here is the Over/Under.
The total for this game is 147.5, which is six points lower than the closing number for Game 1.
Valkyries vs. Dream Game 6 prediction
Save for one game, this series has been a rock fight as both defenses have imposed their will on the series, and the Under is 4-1 so far.
The Valkyries held opponents to 75.1 points per game during the regular season, and that number has largely held in the postseason where they’ve allowed just 76 ppg.
The Dream have allowed 75 points per game in the postseason, nearly 10 points lower than their regular season average.
The Valkyries have much less firepower on offense compared to the Dream, who have the ability to score, but have been stifled over the past two games.
Angel Reese was able to run amok for two games in this series with a 30-point and 20-point outing, but in Games 4 and 5, Golden State held the DPOY to 7.5 points per game on 20 percent shooting from the floor.
At this point in the series, there aren’t many more adjustments either team can make.
Both sides know each other well enough that they can defend actions and keep scoring down. Fatigue is also a factor after nearly six months of basketball for both teams.
Excluding the one Over in this series, the Finals games went under the total by an average of 21.7 points.
While 147.5 is a low number, I think we’ll see both teams continue to lean on their defenses in this series.
The Pick: Under 147.5 (-115, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
