Wednesday night’s clash between New Mexico State (2-4, 1-1) and Sam Houston State (1-5, 0-2) is the only show in Football Town. It’s the only FBS game on the card, and there is no NFL to compete with, so you can expect a pretty big betting handle for a tilt between two of the worst teams in the country.
New Mexico State, ranked 124th in the country by SP+ and 135th in Sagarin (which includes FCS schools), is a 2.5-point favorite on the road over Sam Houston State, which is 126th in SP+ and 151st in Sagarin.
On the surface, this isn’t an easy game to sell, but there are some pretty high stakes at play at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium on Wednesday.
New Mexico State has a win over Western Kentucky and could keep themselves in the mix in Conference USA with a win, while Phil Longo is fighting to keep his job at Sam Houston State.
New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston State odds, prediction
Longo’s hiring at Sam Houston State brought plenty of intrigue. The New Jersey native is considered a sharp offensive mind and one of the early disciples of the Air Raid, but he hadn’t served as a head coach since he was in charge of La Salle between 2004 and 2005.
The idea was that Longo’s offensive chops would raise the ceiling for the Bearkats in Conference USA, but it hasn’t panned out. Sam Houston State is just 3-15 under Longo, and the offense has been the reason for its struggles. The Bearkats are scoring just 11.6 points per game (135th in FBS) and averaging 4.3 yards per play (131st) against FBS opponents this season.
The defense has held up pretty well by Conference USA standards, but it is being asked to do way too much.
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I suspect that will continue on Wednesday.
New Mexico State isn’t a world-beater with the football, but they are a few steps better than Sam Houston State. The Aggies are 94th in the country in yards per play, and their running game is competent, which is the weak point of the Bearkats’ defense. Sam Houston State ranks 126th in yards allowed per rush.
You can always expect the unexpected when two terrible teams meet in these midweek games, but everything lines up for New Mexico State in this one. The Aggies have the better numbers, they’ve already scored an impressive win this season, and they have a rest advantage.
The Play: New Mexico State -2.5 (-110, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
