Vladimir Putin has reportedly suffered huge losses in Ukraine as more than 3,600 tanks were destroyed or damaged last year.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) states that Ukrainian forces are also believed to have destroyed or damaged almost 9,000 armored vehicles in 2024, as Russia continues to accrue vehicle losses that are “likely unsustainable in the medium-term”.
Experts specified that data from the Ukrainian General Staff indicates that its forces destroyed or damaged 3,689 Russian tanks, 8,956 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), 13,050 artillery systems, and 407 air defense systems between January 1, 2024 and January 1, 2025.
In addition, Putin’s forces reportedly lost at least 197 tanks, 661 armored personnel carriers (APCs), and 65 artillery systems larger than 100mm throughout the frontline during a period of “intensified offensive operations” in Donetsk Oblast in September and October 2024.
Invading forces also likely sustained a higher rate of tank and armored vehicle losses in June and July 2024 when Russian forces were conducting mechanised assaults in western Donetsk Oblast several times a week.
This reportedly often resulted in armored vehicle losses.
The ISW added: “Russia’s current armored vehicle and tank production rates indicate that such losses will likely be prohibitive over the longer term, particularly as Russia continues to dip into its Soviet-era stocks.
“Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated in February 2024 that the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) can produce 250-300 ‘new and thoroughly modernized’ tanks per year and can repair roughly 250-300 additional damaged tanks per year, far below Ukraine’s estimate of 3,600 Russian tanks lost in 2024.”
The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank reported in February 2024 that Russia was likely able to sustain its rate of vehicle losses at that time – over 3,000 armored fighting vehicles including tanks, armored personnel carriers, and infantry fighting vehicles annually as of 2023 and nearly 8,800 between February 2022 and February 2024 – for at least two to three years (until about February 2026 or 2027) by mainly refurbishing vehicles from Soviet-era storage facilities.
The ISW also reported: “A social media source tracking Russian military depots via satellite imagery shared an updated assessment of Russian tank and armored vehicle storage facilities on December 22 and assessed that Russian forces have 47 percent of their pre-war tank reserves, 52 percent of pre-war infantry fighting vehicle reserves, and 45 percent of pre-war armored personnel carrier reserves remaining in storage as of a recent unspecified date.
“The social media source noted that Russian forces have used most of their newer T-90 and T-80 tanks but still have a majority of their older tanks in storage, although some of these tanks have likely been heavily degraded by weather and time.
“It appears increasingly unlikely that the Russian military can sustain its current annual rate of almost 9,000 armored vehicle losses through 2025.
“This loss rate is nearly three times the annual loss rate of the first two years of the war according to IISS, suggesting that the February 2024 IISS estimate that Russia can sustain its vehicle losses through 2025 and possibly 2026 is no longer valid.”
