USC’s record puts it on track for a College Football Playoff breakthrough under Lincoln Riley.
The Trojans’ schedule?
Different story.
As things stand, No. 19 USC (6-1) figures to be an underdog in at least three of its remaining games —against No. 4 Ohio State at the Coliseum and on the road against No. 5 Indiana and No. 12 UCLA.
Let’s also not forget that the Trojans have to play at Wisconsin on Oct. 24, further testing Riley’s ability to win multiple time zones away.
Yes, USC is 2-0 in Big Ten road games this season after having beaten Rutgers and Penn State, but some context is needed. The Scarlet Knights and Nittany Lions have gone a combined 0-5 in conference games.
So what, exactly, has USC proven on the road again?
Given that there’s almost no scenario in which the Trojans can get into the 12-team CFP with three losses unless they pull a 2025 Alabama, they will probably need to win at least three of those four challenging games.
Here are three pathways for USC to get into the CFP and alleviate the pressure that’s been mounting on Riley after falling short of the playoffs in his first four seasons at the school:
The dominant route
Imagine it now: The Trojans clobber Ohio State so convincingly at the Coliseum on Oct. 31 that the narrative on Riley is completely transformed.
Students who chanted “Fire Lincoln!” during a sloppy showing against Washington earlier this month are now yelling “Extend Lincoln!”
This comes after USC has already beaten Wisconsin at Camp Randall Stadium, further shifting the perception that Riley can’t win on the road in the Big Ten.
Buoyed by four consecutive victories and a bye week, the Trojans roll into Indiana and edge a Hoosiers team that doesn’t look nearly as dominant as the one that went unbeaten a year ago on the way to the national title.
After pasting poor Maryland at home the next week, USC has already secured a CFP berth. But the Trojans’ bid for a first-round bye has extra incentive — it comes against rival UCLA at the Rose Bowl.
With Gary Patterson dialing up the defensive game plan of his career to hold down the Bruins’ run game and fluster quarterback Ty Dieffenbach, the Trojans pull away toward the end of a taut triumph.
Quarterback Jayden Maiava and his teammates walk off the Rose Bowl field having won the city title while also living up to those billboards around town saying “THE TIME IS : NOW.”
At 11-1, USC has secured a first-round bye in the CFP and is a fashionable pick to win its first national championship since the Pete Carroll era.
The just-good-enough route
There’s actually a lot of ways this scenario could go.
USC could stumble against Wisconsin before rebounding to run the table (don’t count on it).
The Trojans could pull out a momentous victory over Ohio State at the Coliseum, beat Indiana on the road and then falter against UCLA in the regular-season finale (a series of events that also sounds implausible).
Or maybe they lose to the Buckeyes, beat up on Indiana and pull out a close one against UCLA (not really buying this one, either).
All that matters is that USC finishes with just two losses, which would assure it of that first CFP appearance under RIley.
It seems reasonable to believe that the Trojans’ toughest remaining games, in order, are against Ohio State, UCLA, Indiana, Wisconsin and Washington.
Why would beating the Bruins be harder than toppling the defending national champs? That’s a rivalry game on the road against a fearless coach who already has his team in position to reach the CFP in Year 1.
Plus, Indiana has a shaky quarterback and has looked susceptible in multiple games against lesser opponents.
The skin-of-the-teeth route
This one is going to require some help.
Given that USC will unquestionably face one of the nation’s hardest schedules — even accounting for the removal of Notre Dame from its nonconference slate — there is a world in which it gets into the CFP with three losses.
Let’s say the Trojans finish 9-3 with their only losses against Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana.
You can almost hear the words coming out of Hunter Yurachek’s mouth now.
“We just weren’t willing to penalize a team whose only three losses came against elite competition,” Yurachek, the chairman of the CFP selection committee, might say in that scenario.
There is also a precedent for a three-loss team getting into the CFP.
Remember, Alabama got into the CFP last season after suffering two losses in the regular season plus another setback in the SEC Championship game.
Seeded No. 9, the Crimson Tide edged Oklahoma in the first round before getting crushed by Indiana in the semifinals.
Of course, getting in is getting in — and Riley and his team would certainly take it.
