The Browns have been one of the most refreshing surprises of the NFL season.
At 3-1, first-year head coach Todd Monken has given an early impression that he’s capable of changing — or at least beginning to unfurl — years of a losing culture.
The Jets, on the other hand, have slid to 1-3 with glaring struggles on both lines, yet are 2.5-point favorites in East Rutherford on Sunday.
Deshaun Watson isn’t anything flashy, but he’s managed responsibly, and it’s keeping the Browns in games. His late drive against Pittsburgh set up Andre Szmyt’s game-winning 56-yard field goal in a 27-24 victory, marking the third time this season Watson has engineered a fourth-quarter possession that put Cleveland ahead.
Jets vs. Browns prediction best bet
Geno Smith has at least provided some stability under center for Gang Green, though the Jets’ offense remains hampered by the same inconsistencies that doomed it last season. It generated just 157 total yards against Chicago, struggling to involve Garrett Wilson while its unreliable offensive line and fifth-worst rushing attack offered little support.
The week before, we saw the Jets take a high-octane Lions offense down to the wire. The Jets piled up 335 yards as Wilson and Kenyon Sadiq both had 100-yard days.
This offense is simply too mercurial to trust right now.
Now, they run into a relentless Browns pass rush that has turned itself upside down since the 34-10 thrashing it endured from Jacksonville in Week 1. Since then, they have limited opponents to a first down on just 27 percent of passes against man coverage, the NFL’s second-best mark in that span.
They are amongst the top-five teams in both pressures and sacks.
And they’ve done it without Myles Garrett.
Not to mention, they are unlikely to have Breece Hall again in the backfield, and the Browns have allowed under 100 rushing yards in each of their last two games.
Betting on the NFL?
The Jets are laying points because they are at home, but anyone who’s experienced 1 p.m. ET on a Sunday at MetLife over the last 10 years can affirm that’s hardly an advantage.
Books just aren’t sold enough on the Browns’ last three weeks juxtaposed to their last 27 years — and how can they be?
Neither team deserves trust, so take the one that offers the value.
THE PLAY: Browns moneyline (+122, Caesars)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
