Forty-two-year-old Aaron Rodgers against Daniel Jones isn’t exactly appointment viewing these days.
Though the league pushes on in this AFC matchup with the Steelers -2.5 point favorites at home against the Colts.
Indianapolis has not played well this year as the No. 20 team in total DVOA and No. 25 in defensive DVOA.
The Colts have the second-lowest yards per play in the NFL (4.5) and it’s not like they are playing against defensive juggernauts either (Ravens, Chiefs, Texans, Commanders).
My model has this game as a complete coin flip in terms of value against the spread. My projected score has the Steelers favored by 3.5 points, but it wouldn’t be a substantial wager for me.
While DVOA rates the Colts No. 20 and the Steelers No. 21, Pittsburgh leads in yards per play (5.0 vs. 4.5) and yards per play allowed (5.7 vs. 6.2).
Instead, I’m looking to lay the hammer on DK Metcalf to have a strong game for Pittsburgh.
Roman Wilson has been the main beneficiary of Rodgers’ strong play, but Metcalf is their top receiver and a down the field threat.
Betting on the NFL?
Rodgers is second the league in air yards over the last two games and Metcalf is still a good deep threat.
Target Metcalf to go over 49.5 receiving yards (-127), over 59.5 (+188, Kalshi) and 100+ (+600) to get a chance at a big payday this weekend.
THE PLAY: DK Metcalf over 49.5 receiving yards (-127, BetRivers) | Over 59.5 receiving yards (+188, Kalshi) 100+ (+600, theScore Bet)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
