“Thursday Night Football” is notoriously a minefield for bettors.
The popular belief is that the short rest forces stagnant offense and games devolve into defensive slugfests: words that could have nothing to do with the 2026 Dallas Cowboys.
“America’s Team” has hung 30 points in three straight games heading into the Week 5 opener against the Buccaneers at AT&T Stadium. Since Dallas opened as 9.5-point favorites, the line has steamed toward Tampa after the market noted heavy public and sharp action on the Buccaneers.
The original 9.5 overweighted Mayfield injury and the 0-4 start. The fact is that all four of those losses have been one-possession scores, and the undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels showed enough dual-threat ability in his debut to give a shaky Dallas run defense some challenges.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prediction, best bet
But that still doesn’t erase Tampa Bay’s bottom-three ranking in EPA per play. It doesn’t erase the offense failing to have topped 20 points in all of those games or hide the highest sack rate allowed in the NFL.
If there’s any defense that would fail to take advantage of that, it would be Dallas’, having generated only four sacks through four games.
The question becomes whether Daniels can keep pace with Dak Prescott and one of the most prolific units in the game — in his first road game, no less.
Daniels showcased both promise and mistakes. While he raked in 55 yards with his legs, the Kansas product only aired 148 passing yards, and the two picks he threw were converted for 10 points. They’ve now forked over 40 points on turnovers.
The scoring has incrementally dropped each week by first-year offensive coordinator Zac Robinson’s unit. Even aside from the offensive line woes, the attack can’t execute chunk plays, and it is plagued by flags.
Let’s contrast that just to CeeDee Lamb alone, who caught 17 balls for 189 yards and a touchdown against Houston last week. Lamb is moved frequently between the slot and the outside, which can give a Tampa Bay secondary that’s already banged up trouble covering him. He can make all the difference, now leading the NFL in receptions (37), receiving yards (498) and first-down catches (28).
Prescott is finding ways to get the ball into playmakers’ hands as the remaining five of his pass catchers went for 146 yards in that game.
And George Pickens is still waiting for an eruption any day the balls come his way.
The Cowboys’ 34-30 escape felt like the first time in a while that they won a game where the opponent outpaced them and they struggled to get the stops. The defense bent, but didn’t break, staying alive to trail by 10 points at the half.
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Tampa Bay isn’t much better than Dallas at administering pressure. They’ve only sacked the quarterback six times, a result of their bottom-five rank in pressure rate. So, Prescott will be nice and cozy making decisions behind an offensive line that’s sixth in sacks-per-pass-play.
The Buccaneers are playing in close games, yes. They have also failed to cover the spread in their last 13 games dating back to last season.
No matter what day of the week this game is played on, Dallas will hit the gas pedal.
THE PLAY: Cowboys -7.5 (51.9 percent, Kalshi)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
