Another primetime matchup for Michael Penix Jr. and the Atlanta Falcons is on tap for “Monday Night Football.”
Atlanta comes in on extra-long rest, after dominating the Packers 11 days ago.
The Falcons are 2.5-point underdogs in New Orleans for a game that looks like an absolute shootout between two of the NFL’s most high-profile offenses.
Tyler Shough has been one of the league’s best quarterbacks this year, throwing the third-most passing yards per game in the NFL as a true air-it-out offense backed by stud receiver Chris Olave.
Inside of the Superdome, tonight’s game has the potential to be the highest-scoring game of the week as both teams have massive upside on that side of the ball, though it’s one side’s defense that is worrying to me.
New Orleans has the No. 29th-ranked defense in the NFL per DVOA, while Atlanta has had a surprisingly strong unit early this year, coming in as the No. 10-ranked unit.
Now, in a potential shootout and a high-powered Saints offense at home, that might not carry over too far, but if it comes down to it late, I easily trust the Falcons defense to get a stop over the Saints.
Add in that Penix Jr. looked superb as the quarterback after some early-game jitters were clearly hampering him, and I like the Falcons in this primetime spot.
They have plenty of time to prepare, and Penix Jr.’s early returns were excellent: 17/23 for 239 yards in three quarters after the interception.
My model projects a nearly complete line flip for this contest.
I have the Falcons favored in this game 22.14 to 21.03, though that clearly lends no value on the total thanks to Atlanta’s early start, which featured the lifeless Cooper Rush.
We’re taking the Falcons every direction that we can this weekend, and we also have an eye on Mr. Primetime himself: Bijan Robinson.
Here are Bijan Robinson’s last seven primetime games.
| Date | Game | Rush Yds | Rush TD | Scrimmage Yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/29/24 | SNF at WAS | 150 | 2 | 167 |
| 9/14/25 | SNF at MIN | 143 | 0 | 168 |
| 10/13/25 | MNF vs BUF | 170 | 1 | 238 |
| 10/19/25 | SNF at SF | 76 | 0 | 128 |
| 12/11/25 | TNF at TB | 93 | 1 | 175 |
| 12/29/25 | MNF vs LA | 195 | 1 | 229 |
| 9/24/26 | TNF at GB | 194 | 2 | 213 |
That’s an insane amount of production from Robinson, who is the best standalone game-running back in the league.
Robinson has gone over 159.5 scrimmage yards in six of his last seven primetime showcases, and he’s averaging well above that.
Betting on the NFL?
This is a shootout that I like the Falcons to win outright, and Robinson runs wild in the run game and through screen passes.
PREDICTION: Falcons Moneyline (+120, Novig) | Bijan Robinson over 159.5 scrimmage yards (+205, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
