Rain is in the forecast for “Sunday Night Football,” and the Panthers better hope it’s a serious amount to keep this game low-scoring.
Right now, the rain is expected to be heavy Saturday night into Sunday and continue into Sunday afternoon, but it’s unclear whether it will be a serious problem during game time.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog on “Sunday Night Football,” while the game total keeps climbing.
After opening at 47.5, the total is now 50.5 as Jared Goff and Bryce Young duke it out in what could be slippery conditions for some of the game’s most important players.
My model does not like the Panthers in this game despite being the home team with a better DVOA ranking (No. 13 vs. No. 14).
While the Panthers have better yards per play figures (six yards per play vs. 5.6 for Detroit) and yards per play allowed numbers (5.5 YPP allowed vs. 5.8 for the Lions), they are missing significant pieces.
Star receiver Jalen Coker has been nursing a quadriceps injury and they’re also missing their top two cornerbacks, Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson.
It’s been a decent start to the season for the Panthers, but the Lions have faced much better teams this year, which is why I’m adjusting their yards-per-play stats in Detroit’s favor.
Add in that Dave Canales has been actively talking about running the ball being the main factor on offense for both teams, I’m worried that the Panthers aren’t correctly preparing for a high-flying offense that Dan Campbell boasts.
Look for the Lions to cover at home in what could become a shootout.
Feel free to also target the under 50.5 total points, given how much it has moved since open.
Betting on the NFL?
As for a player prop, I’ll target Jahmyr Gibbs over 19.5 rushing attempts as he’s cleared this number in two of three games and the rain forecast would in theory, lead to fewer pass attempts.
THE PLAY: Lions -3.5 | Under 50.5 total points | Jahmyr Gibbs over 19.5 rushing attempts (-112, Kalshi)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
