One of the best games on Sunday’s slate: the No. 2 team in total DVOA heads to Cincinnati to face the No. 7 team in total DVOA.
Perhaps surprisingly, the better team by DVOA is the underdog, as Jacksonville has opened as three-point underdogs and sat at that number throughout the week.
Cincinnati has shown legitimate defensive improvement with the trade of Dexter Lawrence and a new linebacking core.
The Bengals’ defense is No. 11 in DVOA after being near the bottom of the league last year.
But the Jaguars are very well-rounded: No. 2 in overall DVOA, No. 6 in offensive DVOA, and No. 2 in defensive DVOA.
In a quarterback matchup between Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow, this game has every bit of intrigue going into Sunday.
Even on the road, I think the Jaguars should be a pick ‘em here, so give me the field goal against the spread.
My model even has the Jaguars as slight favorites, 24.96 to 24.20.
As for a player prop, Bhayushul Tuten has been the story of the Jaguars week with coach Liam Coen constantly gushing over their star running back.
In a game that I expect could feature tons of points, back Tuten to be unleashed this weekend by a high-profile offense.
Back Tuten to go over his rushing total of 54.5, and he could even blow past it.
Betting on the NFL?
For my long shot bettors out there, Tuten to go over 120 rushing yards comes in at 15/1 and is one of my favorite bets of the weekend.
THE PLAY: Jaguars +3 | Bhayshul Tuten over 54.5 rushing yards (-101, Prophetx) | Tuten over 119.5 rushing yards (15/1, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
