The path to glory is laid out for the Brewers.
Coming off their best season in franchise history with 103 wins, the road to the World Series in the National League goes through Milwaukee.
They host the red-hot Padres in Game 1 of the NL Division Series with likely NL Cy Young winner Jacob Misiorowski on the mound in his 2026 postseason debut to kick off the series.
The Padres have been the hottest team in baseball since September, with 20 wins in their past 25 games, and they won the regular-season series with the Brewers, 4-2.
The Brew Crew is favored on the moneyline, priced at -218 odds, with the Over/Under listed at 7 total runs.
Padres vs. Brewers Game 1 prediction, best bets
Misiorowski was unreal this year, leading the majors in ERA (1.80), strikeouts (252) and WHIP (0.802) in just his second season.
With a 4-seam fastball that averaged 100.6 mph as his go-to pitch, Misiorowski ranked in the 99th percentile in Whiff percentage and 88th percentile in Chase percentage.
The Padres finished with the 10th-highest Chase percentage in the league, and the last time they faced Misiorowski in May, he rung them up for 10 strikeouts.
The Padres do look like a different team these days.
They led baseball in wOBA for the last 25 games of the season and their 139 runs trailed only the Brewers for the most over that stretch.
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Misiorowski hasn’t thrown more than five innings since Sept. 8, so his arm should be well rested, but the Padres will be looking to jump on the Brewers’ ace.
The Padres are riding high off the vibes in San Diego in their thrashing of the Cubs, but I think the shift to Milwaukee will bring their temperature down.
I’ll back Misiorowski to put some Ks on the board in Game 1.
The Pick: Misiorowski Over 7.5 strikeouts (-140, Caesars)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
