Kansas City came through for almost everyone last week who did the right thing and used the Chiefs in Week 3.
We move on to Week 4, where we have two double-digit favorites to choose from, and those should be most of your entries this week, but which is the best long-range option?
As always, the beauty is in the eye of the beholder in Survivor pick ‘em tournaments, as you’ll always see a handful of upsets each week to keep you on your toes.
Last week, Marcus Mariota and the Commanders upset the Seahawks in an impressive and bizarre fashion that eliminated 1,111 entries in the Circa Survivor contest, 12.9 percent of remaining entrants.
Week 4 NFL Survivor picks
Ravens vs. Titans
Baltimore comes in here as 11.5-point favorites, and if what we saw from Robert Saleh and the Tennessee Titans in Week 3 was any indication of the rest of the Titans season, then you’re probably safe here.
Baltimore has been solid so far this season, and it looks like their team’s health is going in the right direction too, with Zay Flowers playing well on a limited snap count.
The Titans could keep it close; I’m not saying Baltimore covers here, as Saleh’s defense could come out with a spirited performance – but the Ravens are more talented at every position group, especially quarterback.
I suspect that the Ravens will be the highest percentage of Survivor players this weekend and for good reason.
Vikings vs. Dolphins
It’s asking a lot to have Malik Willis walk into Minnesota, where he did admittedly have success while with the Packers, and beat a Vikings team without its top weapon in De’Von Achane.
Achane is out for the year with a torn ACL, not like he was being used in a real way anyway by the team.
But there are no real playmakers to speak of in Miami, and while they had a decent effort at home in Kansas City this past weekend, Minnesota is a tough place to play.
The Vikings are probably my top play of the week for my value hunters who were probably burned by the Buccaneers in Week 2.
Betting on the NFL?
Week 4 Survivor model picks
| # | Team | Score | Next best use |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ravens vs. TEN -11.5 | 80.7 | Week 16 vs CLE 80.6%(No. 1) |
| 2 | Vikings vs MIA -10.5 | 78.6 | Week 12 vs ATL 66.1%(No. 3) |
| 3 | Seahawks vs LAC -6.5 | 68.7 | Week 9 vs ARI 76.8%(No. 1) |
| 4 | Bills vs. NE -6.5 | 68.7 | Week 11 vs MIA 86.7%(No. 1) |
| 5 | Chiefs at LV -4.5 | 63.4 | Week 11 vs ARI 78.7%(No. 2) |
| 6 | Lions at CAR -3.5 | 60.5 | Week 9 at MIA 75.0%(No. 3) |
| 7 | Packers at TB -3.5 | 60.3 | Week 15 vs MIA 78.2%(No. 1) |
| 8 | Coltsat WAS -3.5 | 60.3 | Week 10 vs MIA 73.4%(No. 3) |
| 9 | Bears vs NYJ -3.0 | 59.2 | Week 14 at MIA 74.2%(No. 1) |
| 10 | Steelers at CLE -2.5 | 57.6 | Week 8 vs CLE 64.5%(No. 4) |
| 11 | Rams at PHI -2.5 | 57.6 | Week 6 vs ARI 80.8%(No. 1) |
| 12 | 49ers vs DEN -2.5 | 57.5 | Week 9 vs LV 74.2%(No. 4) |
| 13 | Saints vs ATL -2.5 | 57.4 | Week 9 vs CLE 62.9%(No. 9) |
| 14 | Bengals vs JAX -2.5 | 57.4 | Week 18 vs CLE 75.4%(No. 4) |
| 15 | Texans vs. DAL -2.5 | 57.4 | Week 18 vs TEN 73.6%(No. 5) |
| 16 | Cardinals at NYG -1.0 | 52.7 | Week 17 vs LV 52.1%(No. 12) |
| 17 | Giants vs ARI +1.0 | 47.3 | Week 15 vs CLE 66.8%(No. 2) |
| 18 | Cowboys at HOU +2.5 | 42.6 | Week 8 vs ARI 72.2%(No. 1) |
| 19 | Jaguars at CIN +2.5 | 42.6 | Week 12 vs TEN 68.4%(No. 1) |
| 20 | Falcons at NO +2.5 | 42.6 | Week 14 at CLE 52.2%(No. 14) |
| 21 | Broncos at SF +2.5 | 42.5 | Week 13 vs MIA 79.6%(No. 1) |
| 22 | Eagles vs LAR +2.5 | 42.4 | Week 13 at ARI 73.1%(No. 2) |
| 23 | Browns vs PIT +2.5 | 42.4 | Week 12 vs LV 50.7%(No. 16) |
| 24 | Jets at CHI +3.0 | 40.8 | Week 7 vs MIA 65.1%(No. 4) |
| 25 | Commanders vs IND +3.5 | 39.7 | Week 15 vs ATL 59.7%(No. 10) |
| 26 | Buccaneers vs GB +3.5 | 39.7 | Week 8 vs ATL 64.0%(No. 6) |
| 27 | Panthers vs DET +3.5 | 39.5 | Week 18 vs ATL 60.2%(No. 9) |
| 28 | Raiders vs KC +4.5 | 36.6 | Week 16 vs TEN 52.2%(No. 15) |
| 29 | Patriots at BUF +6.5 | 31.3 | Week 18 vs MIA 77.8%(No. 2) |
| 30 | Chargers at SEA +6.5 | 31.3 | Week 16 at MIA 72.7%(No. 2) |
| 31 | Dolphins at MIN +10.5 | 21.4 | Week 12 vs NYJ 42.2%(No. 26) |
| 32 | Titans at BAL +11.5 | 19.3 | Week 7 vs CLE 58.4%(No. 8) |
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
