Perhaps no player in women’s tennis can relate to Jessica Pegula’s plight more than Aryna Sabalenka.
For years, Sabalenka struggled to get over the hump in the business end of Grand Slams, and it wasn’t until the 2023 Australian Open that the Belarusian was able to not only get to a final, but lift the trophy. Sabalenka has won three more slams since then, including the past two U.S. Opens.
Pegula has been to 11 major quarterfinals in her career and will play her fourth semifinal against Sabalenka at the U.S. Open on Thursday, but she’s only been to one final. That came on these grounds in 2024, when she lost to Sabalenka.
Relative to her expectations, Sabalenka’s form going into the U.S. Open was patchy.
The 28-year-old lost in the Round of 16 at Wimbledon and then was dispatched at the same stage at the Canadian Masters and the Cincinnati Open.
Those performances made Sabalenka a lukewarm favorite to three-peat in Queens, but she’s answered the critics by dropping just one set in five matches.
Pegula’s overall form has been fantastic. She’s 34-7 on hard courts in 2026, and 15-3 on the surface since Wimbledon, but it’s really hard to trust that she’s going to be able to rise to the moment given her history at Grand Slams.
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Against other opponents, you could trust Pegula’s form to be enough to overcome her demons, but Sabalenka is the better player in a vacuum, and she’s also got a serious edge when it comes to the intangibles.
It also doesn’t hurt that Sabalenka, who is a -182 favorite in this tilt, is 9-4 against Pegula in their careers.
Pegula will have the crowd behind her, but I think there’s a strong chance that Sabalenka sends most pro-Pegula supporters home disappointed.
The Play: Sabalenka -1.5 sets (+135, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
