On paper, Conference USA looked like a walk in the park in 2025. Liberty was a consensus favorite, Western Kentucky was not far behind and then there was everybody else.
All the way down the odds was Kennesaw State, which had just racked up 10 losses and was considered one of the worst teams in the country coming into the campaign.
Four months later, the Owls defeated Jacksonville State, 19-15, in the C-USA Championship.
Despite the shocker, the odds board looks eerily familiar going into 2026.
Liberty is atop the board at +250 odds. Western Kentucky is right behind the Flames at +370 and then there is a pack of teams nipping at their heels.
Jacksonville State, Delaware, Kennesaw State and FIU are all between +540 and +780 at DraftKings, and will all be confident that they can take down the lukewarm favorites.
Of that bunch, Western Kentucky is the only price that looks appealing, but the Hilltoppers (who haven’t won the CUSA since 2016, believe it or not) are not my favorite value in this conference.
Instead, we head to Murfreesboro.
Best bet to win C-USA: Middle Tennessee State (50/1, DraftKings)
I’ll let you in on a little secret: You don’t have to be all that good to win C-USA.
This is the worst conference in FBS by a considerable margin, and that means it’s not all that crazy to expect the unexpected. Kennesaw State drove that point home in 2025.
Derek Mason’s tenure at Middle Tennessee State has not gone to plan.
The former Vanderbilt head coach went 6-17 in his first two seasons in charge of the Blue Raiders, and last year opened with a 34-14 loss to Austin Peay.
Mason’s seat is hot.
It was ugly in Murfreesboro, but shreds of hope were emerging. Four of MTSU’s nine losses were by one possession, and the Blue Raiders won their last two games.
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More importantly, Mason could have uncovered a gem under center in Roman Gagliano.
Gagliano took over as the starter for MTSU’s last three games and injected some serious life into the offense. The Blue Raiders went 2-1 with the Alabama native running the offense, and he put up terrific numbers through the air and on the ground.
Gagliano finished the campaign averaging seven yards per dropback and over 8 yards per carry (not including sacks). He didn’t throw an interception in 135 attempts, either.
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Mason and Gagliano will have a ton of new faces to work with, but that’s not a bad thing when you consider how the team performed in 2025.
A lot has to go right for Mason and Middle Tennessee State, but considering the quality of competition, I’m happy to take a chance on a huge price with a coach with his back against the wall and a high-upside quarterback.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
