With Week 2 of the NFL preseason officially in the books, the regular-season kickoff is just a few weeks away.
This is an ideal time to compare win totals across sportsbooks and place your futures wagers.
Consider last season: the Super Bowl champion Seahawks had an opening win total of only 8.5 before surging to a 14-win season.
Their opponent in the title game, the Patriots, likewise opened at 8.5 wins before dominating the AFC to capture their first conference championship of the post-Tom Brady era.
Following an eventful offseason filled with coaching overhauls, roster turnover, and a fresh draft class, we break down two teams primed to beat expectations and one positioned for a step back.
Broncos Over 9.5 wins (-130, bet365) | Over 10.5 (+160, DraftKings)
Sean Payton and Denver were the ultimate “what if” away from a Super Bowl berth: what if Bo Nix had started instead of Jarrett Stidham in last year’s AFC Championship Game?
The truth is that Payton’s squad shattered projections, and notably, their win total opened at 9.5 last year—a full game higher than the aforementioned title contenders.
Behind a defensive unit that paced the league with 68 sacks, Nix and Denver cruised to 14 wins.
Nik Bonitto emerged as a star, while Pat Surtain II continues to anchor a secondary that ranks third entering the season, per Pro Football Focus.
The addition of Jaylen Waddle via Miami gives Nix a legitimate vertical threat to pair with veteran Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin. True to the Payton blueprint, the backfield is loaded with depth, featuring J.K. Dobbins and the dynamic RJ Harvey.
With the Raiders still rebuilding and Patrick Mahomes returning from an ACL injury with lingering questions, the path is clear.
Even with Jim Harbaugh revitalizing the Chargers, Denver is the clear heavyweight favorite in the AFC West.
Catch up on The Post’s NFL betting previews and predictions for the 2026 season
Bills over 10.5 wins (-130, BetMGM)
The Bills finished 12-5 last season, just behind the Patriots in the AFC East, but suffered yet another playoff disappointment.
In response, the organization parted ways with Greg McDermott and promoted offensive coordinator Joe Brady to head coach.
While McDermott performed well during the regular season, Brady’s expertise as a playcaller elevated the Bills to the top in terms of EPA per rush and breakaway metrics last season.
We all know what Josh Allen can do under center, and James Cook has emerged as a true threat out of the backfield.
The addition of DJ Moore could certainly pay off on offense, and Bradley Chubb bolsters an expected new-look defense now led by Jim Leonhard.
Sometimes, a change in leadership can significantly impact a situation.
I’m not banking on the Bills to go undefeated, but this angle is more so in anticipation of a Patriots regression and Buffalo’s overall dominance in the division.
Betting on the NFL?
Bears Under 9.5 wins (-125, DraftKings)
Caleb Williams and the Bears were must-see TV last season, delivering seven fourth-quarter comeback wins, most notably a historic victory over the Packers in the Wild Card round.
Ben Johnson also had a remarkable coaching debut, leading the Bears to their first NFC North title since 2006.
However, with increased success comes greater responsibility, a lesson learned by Dan Campbell and the Lions last season.
Handling a first-place schedule is quite challenging; historically, teams that have faced the toughest paths since 2021 have seen their win totals decrease by an average of 4 games the following year.
While the “Iceman” remains composed under pressure, it seems unlikely that he will replicate last season’s success, especially given that the Bears have the toughest schedule in all of football.
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Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.
