We’ve yet to see a genuine long shot win the World Cup. Italy’s triumph in 1982 was the biggest surprise in the tournament’s history, at least according to the bookmakers, and The Azzurri were just 18/1 that year.
Thirteen of the last 15 champions boasted single-digit odds, with Italy again upsetting the odds as an 11/1 winner in 2006.
Now, just because we haven’t seen a dark horse lift the trophy doesn’t mean it’s been a fool’s errand to back one to do so.
The last World Cup saw two shockers eliminated in the semifinals: Morocco, which was a 200/1 long shot to win it all before the tournament, and Croatia (50/1).
Croatia got even closer to the trophy in 2018, finishing as runners-up to France despite going off with 33/1 odds. Kockasti were also semi-finalists in 1998, when they began the tournament as 66/1 outsiders.
In 2010, it was Uruguay that gatecrashed the final four as a 100/1 roughie.
Eight years earlier, we saw a pair of triple-digit long shots make it to the semifinals: South Korea (200/1) and Turkey (100/1).
Who will be this year’s surprise package? A handful of teams stick out.
Best World Cup sleeper picks
Japan (60/1, Caesars)
One of the most exciting watches on the international stage, Japan plays a unique style of soccer.
While most managers tend to play things conservatively in international tournaments because of the lack of practice time and high stakes, Samurai Blue goes for broke. They’re an all-action pressing machine, and everybody is on board.
Cohesion and chemistry are hard to quantify, but it is incredibly important in the World Cup, and every player on Japan has bought into Hajime Moriyasu’s system. It doesn’t hurt that Moriyasu has been in this post since 2018, making him one of the longest-tenured managers in the sport.
Japan is in a tough group with the Netherlands, Sweden, and Tunisia, but they’re capable of beating anybody (just ask Spain and Germany) in this field, and could be real noisemakers this summer.
United States (70/1, FanDuel)
It’s easy to waffle back and forth on the United States ahead of this tournament, but the one thing everybody agrees on is that this team has serious upside.
The problem is that the Stars & Stripes rarely seems to be able to tap into it.
Drama, disappointment, and poor form in friendlies aside, there is no denying that the Americans have the talent to get into the business end of this tournament.
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Christian Pulisic, Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie, Chris Richards, Antonee Robinson, and New Yorker Folarin Balogun headline the best roster the States has ever sent to a World Cup.
The Americans will likely be a boom or bust team in this field, and while that makes them unappealing to bet as a favorite to win Group D, it does put some value on them to do something silly, like win the whole shabang.
Switzerland (80/1, bet365)
They don’t play a similar style to Japan, but Switzerland does bring the same intangibles with them to the international stage.
Like Japan, this is a cohesive unit that has played well under a long-serving manager.
Murat Yakin, a former Swiss international, sets his team up to be physical and difficult to break down, but they’ve got some serious talent in their ranks.
Experienced players like Granit Xhaka, Manuel Akanji, and Remo Freuler will take control of the center of the pitch, while striker Breel Embolo is a chore to deal with if he’s got his scoring boots with him. Johan Manzambi, 20, has a chance to be a breakout star at this tournament.
Switzerland brings experience and exuberance to this tournament, and they’re also the favorites to top their group, which includes Bosnia, Canada, and Qatar.
There’s a lot to like about Rossocrociati, not least of all their price.
Senegal (125/1, FanDuel)
Senegal was placed in the closest thing to a “Group of Death” in this tournament with France, Norway, and Iraq, but the Lions of Teranga should be confident that they can weather the storm and go on a run.
Not only are they experienced, with several players making their second or third trip to the World Cup, but they are also bursting with game-breakers.
Sadio Mane will lead the line and hopefully score the goals, but the midfield is perfectly poised to give opponents fits. Iliman Ndiaye is the magic man, his Everton teammate Idrisse Gana Gueye is the engine, and Pape Gueye does a bit of everything.
Senegal will need to have its wits about it from the start, but if they get through this group, they should be confident that they can go far in this tournament.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.