Secretary of State Marco Rubio is nearly even with Vice President JD Vance in a 2028 presidential race poll released Thursday, which also pegs former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg as the front-runner for the Democratic nomination.
Support for Rubio has climbed 15 percentage points since February, placing the top US diplomat within 1 point of Vance, the Emerson College survey showed.
Vance garnered 36% support among likely Republican primary voters, down from the 52% he received in August 2025 and February polls, while Rubio collected 35% support, up from the 9% and 20% he received in the pollster’s two previous surveys.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley were tied for third with 5%.
“The Republican primary has shifted significantly since February, when 52% supported Vance and 20% Rubio; the potential 2028 contenders now compete evenly,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.
“Rubio has found support among Republican Primary voters over 50, who support him by a six-point margin over Vance, 41% to 35%, while Vance leads the younger Republican vote under 50, 37% to 26%,” Kimball explained.
About 15% of the 432 GOP voters surveyed remain undecided – up 4 percentage points from the previous polls.
The results come as President Trump has recently began polling the crowd during speeches on whether they prefer Vance or Rubio to take over the MAGA mantle in 2028.
Trump has referred to a potential Vance-Rubio ticket as a “dream team.”
On the Democratic side, Buttigieg has overtaken California Gov. Gavin Newsom as the favorite for the nomination.
Since February 2026, Buttigieg’s support has increased two percentage points, from 16% to 18%.
Newsom’s support, meanwhile, decreased nine points since last August, from 25% to 16%.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) came in third in the poll, with an 11% backing from likely Democratic primary voters.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and former Vice President Kamala Harris tied for fourth with 10% support apiece.
However, Shapiro’s stock has risen 5 points since August 2025, whereas support for the former veep dropped 1 point since that poll.
Rounding out the top 5 is Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear at 9%.
Eighteen percent of Democratic voters are undecided.
