If it wasn’t evident that the Presidents’ Trophy is a cursed chunk of hardware before, the Western Conference final is cementing that case.
The Avalanche, who collected eight more points than any other NHL team in the regular season, are suddenly facing the broom against the Golden Knights on Tuesday.
After a campaign of driving their high-event brand of hockey down opponents’ throats, they have unraveled by the seams once the Golden Knights strike the scoresheet.
With Cale Makar back in the lineup, the Avalanche regained their explosive tempo and sprang to a 3-0 lead after the first. For the second time in this series, however, Vegas captured a come-from-behind win, netting five unanswered goals while the Avalanche abandoned its structure.
All that considered, the Avalanche remain the favorites to win Game 4. Colorado, which has been the chalk in all three contests of this series, is being priced at -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Game 4 prediction, best bet
It’s as if the Avalanche have no answers to adversity because they have never faced it. Nathan MacKinnon and the rest of Colorado’s dangerous transition game have been stunted to a perimeter offense. By effect, the reliance on Avalanche stars has been exposed while Vegas is getting balanced contributions up and down the lineup.
Of all that balance, it’s hard to credit anyone else more than Carter Hart for Vegas’ stranglehold on this series.
The Avalanche have been ugly on the surface, but their underlying metrics say they have had the upper hand at five-on-five play in this series, projecting a 55.3 percent chance of the expected goal. In all situations, the Avs are generating 103 scoring chances and 36 high-danger chances overall.
We know Hart’s play has been sound in the playoffs with a 921 save percentage, 2.30 GAA, and 7.2 goals saved above expected this postseason. What marked an impressive step in the journey was that, after allowing three goals on the first 11 shots he faced, Hart hung in to deny the final 22 shots in the comeback.
He has registered at least 30 saves in all three games against Colorado and in seven of his last nine starts.
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Hart’s positioning and rebound control have erased many Colorado possessions as the 27-year-old carries a high-danger save percentage of 86 percent.
The Avalanche are going to throw the kitchen sink at him in Game 4. With key offensive generators like MacKinnon, Makar, and Valeri Nichushkin all nursing respective injuries, it’s safe to expect another big performance from Hart.
THE PLAY: Carter Hart Over 28.5 Saves (-112, FanDuel)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
