The PGA Championship normally rewards a certain prototype of golfer.
Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas (twice), and Brooks Koepka (three times) account for eight of the last 10 triumphs at the PGA Championship.
That group all have a number of things in common. But the simplest formula is that they are elite players who were at the top of their game at the time, and they all can hit the ball a mile.
What’s interesting is that the other two winners in that span, Phil Mickelson (2021) and Jimmy Walker (2016), came out of nowhere. Mickelson was as high as 300/1 when he lifted the Wanamaker Trophy at the Ocean Course, and Walker was 125/1 when he held off Jason Day at Baltusrol.
If you go back to 2010, the pattern continues. We either saw elite players (Rory McIlroy and Jason Day) lift the trophy, or it was a long shot like Jason Dufner or debutante Keegan Bradley.
If the trends hold this year, it’s probably a good idea to play a couple of in-form stars at the top of the board, and then sprinkle a long shot or two.
2026 PGA Championship picks, props, long shots
Top of the board: Bryson DeChambeau (22/1, FanDuel)
It may sound counterintuitive to have DeChambeau listed here since we faded him successfully at the Masters, but there is logic behind it. Augusta National is not a place where you can erase mistakes. Aronimink seems to be the opposite.
By all accounts, we should see some pretty low scores by the end of the weekend, and DeChambeau’s skillset is built for that kind of setup.
He was a trendy pick despite boasting single-digit odds at some sportsbooks ahead of the Masters, so it seems like a terrific idea to buy the dip on DeChambeau this week.
Sleeper: Collin Morikawa (40/1, FanDuel)
You’ll always find great prices on terrific players at majors because of the quality of the fields, but this one seems like a gift.
There were a lot of concerns about Morikawa’s back ahead of Augusta, but he put those to bed with a T7 finish. The 2020 PGA Champion rolled that form into the next week, finishing T4 at the RBC Heritage. He came undone in his next start at the Blue Monster, but he’s still coming into the second major of the season with a win and five top-10 finishes in his last six outings.
I’ll take 40/1 on that formula every week.
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Long shot: Matt McCarty (250/1, DraftKings)
No need to overthink this one.
McCarty is not a household name, but he sure is playing like one. The 28-year-old finished T24 at the Masters, and then strung together three straight top-12 showings in Signature Events. McCarty carded a T12 at the RBC Heritage, T9 at the Cadillac Championship, and he was T10 last week at Quail Hollow, a course that should compare well to the conditions this week.
First-round leader: Gary Woodland (80/1, bet365)
Woodland is writing one of the feel-good stories in the sporting world in 2026, and it doesn’t seem like it’s going to end anytime soon.
The former U.S. Open champion’s tear-jerking triumph at the Houston Open is one of two top-10s and three top-20s in Woodland’s last five starts.
He ranks 14th in Round 1 scoring on the PGA Tour this year, so we’ll take a great price on the Topeka native to set the pace in Pennsylvania this week.
Prop: Jhonnatan Vegas top-20 finish (11/1, FanDuel)
A boom or bust player who can hit the ball into the atmosphere, Vegas is as likely to miss the cut as he is to make it this weekend.
That said, if he does make the cut, his length off the tee should make him a threat to hang around the leaderboard. He finished T5 in this event last season.
Fade: Matt Fitzpatrick (22/1, bet365)
One of the hottest players on the Tour, Fitzpatrick isn’t built to contend in this kind of field in these kinds of conditions. One of the best in the world when it comes to grinding it out, he could be left behind by the bombers at Aronimink.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.