The Yankees could put the scuffling Red Sox further in the rear-view mirror with a win Wednesday night and they’ve got the right guy on the mound to do it.
Max Fried has come back down to earth in his last three starts, but he’s still carrying a 2.97 ERA and 0.81 WHIP into his sixth outing of the season.
Boston will counter with one of its best hurlers, Ranger Suarez, who has put up decent numbers in his first four outings as a Red Sox.
The Yanks are -146 favorites for this clash at Fenway Park.
Yankees vs. Red Sox odds, prediction
There are a lot of signs that point to this contest being a pitchers’ duel, and the first one has nothing to do with the actual pitchers.
New England is dealing with NFL weather on Wednesday night. Temperatures for this contest are expected to dip towards 40 degrees with minimal wind. It won’t be fun to hit in these conditions, especially against two hurlers who thrive on inducing weak contact.
Suarez hasn’t got fully up to speed this season, but there were a select few starters who did a better job at avoiding solid contact last season.
The 30-year-old finished the campaign in the 98th percentile for hard hit rate, 95th in average exit velocity and 75th in ground ball rate.
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Fried’s batted-ball numbers weren’t at that level last season, but he thrived at getting hitters to roll over on pitches, posting a 52.6 percent groundball rate (89th percentile) in 32 starts.
The southpaw’s lagging behind that number so far, but he’s excelled at getting weak contact and currently sits in the 90th percentile for barrel percentage and 87th for hard hit rate.
Fried may be coming off his worst outing of the campaign, but his numbers this suggest he’s performing at an ace level. Nothing to worry about here.
He’ll also have the benefit of going up against an offense that seems bereft of answers, especially after it was shutout by Luis Gil and the Yankees bullpen Tuesday.
Suarez, Fried, a struggling BoSox lineup, and some nasty weather give us all the right ingredients for a play on Under 7.5.
The Play: Under 7.5 (+102, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.