Italy’s historic win over Team USA on Tuesday night turned the World Baseball Classic on its head.
Not only was it one of the biggest upsets in the history of the tournament, but it also put the Stars and Stripes in a situation where they could be eliminated, depending on the result of Wednesday’s matchup between Italy and Mexico.
The most straightforward scenario for Team USA is that they advance if Italy wins in any fashion. The Azzurri would top Pool B, with the Americans settling in as the runner-up.
Mexico would be eliminated.
Things get complicated if Mexico wins. That result would automatically send Mexico through to the quarterfinals, but a mathematical tiebreaker would determine whether Italy or the U.S. advances to the knockout rounds.
If Wednesday’s game ends in nine innings, the USA would advance if Italy loses and gives up at least five runs. If the Italians lose and allow fewer than four runs, then the Americans are out. Extra innings would change the math.
Got all that? Good.
Mexico is a -285 favorite to beat Italy at Daikin Park on Wednesday evening.
Italy vs. Mexico: World Baseball Classic odds, prediction
It’s been a tale of two teams for Mexico in the WBC.
El Tri dominated Brazil and Great Britain by a combined score of 24-2, but they were halted by the Americans, 5-3, in their only stiff test of the tournament.
Mexico’s lineup, which includes plenty of Major League pop, does look better on paper, but the Azzurri’s bats have been even more impressive after the pummeling they put on Team USA on Tuesday.
Italy will be without catcher Kyle Teel, but he’s far from the only batter in good form for the Italians. Jac Caglianone, Dante Nori, and Sam Antonacci have all been spraying the ball, and Vinnie Pasquantino gives the Azzurri a potential game-breaker in the heart of the order.
Even if you give Mexico the slight edge on offense, the pitching advantage goes to the underdogs.
Aaron Nola was uninspiring in 2025, but he’s an established big-game pitcher at the Major League level, and he will be fresh after sitting out the first three games of the competition. It was a shrewd move by Francisco Cervelli to save Nola for this game.
While Mexico hasn’t confirmed its starter, it is likely to be Javier Assad, who was terrific in his first outing, though it did come against Great Britain.
Betting on Baseball?
Assad is no pushover, but this is going to be a very different test than the one he faced against the Brits. Nola gets the advantage here, especially when you consider the odds.
On paper, Mexico is the better team and the deserving favorite. But Italy has turned itself into the story of the tournament, and it’s not just momentum that’s on their side.
The Azzuri have their best pitcher on the hill, and a rowdy lineup is backing him up.
The Play: Italy +230 (FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
