Team USA gets underway at the 2026 World Baseball Classic with a showdown against Brazil at Daikin Park in Houston.
The Stars and Stripes are the odds-on favorites to win the tournament, and they’re a massive price (-750) to top Pool B, which also features Mexico, Great Britain and Friday’s opponent, Brazil.
San Francisco Giants’ ace Logan Webb will get the nod for the Americans.
As you can imagine, the odds for Friday’s tilt are quite wide, with the Stars and Stripes sitting as -4000 favorites. You can get +1600 on Brazil to pull the upset.
World Baseball Classic: USA vs. Brazil odds, prediction
Here’s the thing about handicapping a game — and tournament — like this. Nobody truly knows the best approach. The WBC is still a relatively new concept, and you rarely get served up a baseball game that is this much of a mismatch.
The worst team in the Majors is miles better than Brazil, whose roster features just five players with ties to MLB clubs and no current Major Leaguers.
In fact, the most intriguing player on Brazil is 17-year-old Joseph Contreras, the son of former Yankee Jose Contreras and the No. 47 prospect for the upcoming draft, per MLB.com.
No matter how you shake it, Webb and the Team USA bullpen should have no issues with this lineup. And even if you’re concerned about Webb being on a pitch count, it shouldn’t be a huge factor for the right-hander. He’s got every chance of mowing down Brazil’s hitters quickly, which would allow him to go deeper into the contest.
And even if he isn’t economical, the arms in the bullpen shouldn’t have too many issues with a lineup that won’t feature a single MLB player.
Just getting on the board will be hard work for the Brazilians.
As for the Americans, they should have no issue putting up a crooked number in this game. The lineup is loaded, and there is danger at every turn. It’s relentless, and putting this group against Brazil’s pitching staff feels a bit unfair.
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That said, I do have faith that Brazil can keep the American lineup to a score that will allow us a bet on the Under 14 runs.
This Over/Under is inflated because of Team USA’s lineup. It is prodigious, but the Americans will likely need to do all the damage for this game to get past such an astronomical total. That’s asking a lot of any offense, especially in the first game of a tournament that is taking place in the middle of Spring Training.
The Play: Under 14 (+125, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.