President Trump’s fourth State of the Union is a betting bonanza for some gamblers.
Online prediction sites Kalshi and Polymarket are fielding millions of dollars in wagers on the speech, with prop bets covering everything from whom Trump will attack to how long he’ll talk in his Tuesday address to the nation.
Exactly 95% of bettors believe the president will say the word “China;” another 92% believe a mention of “Biden” will happen; and 93% of gamblers think he’ll say “America” and/or “American” more than 25 times.
If Trump does say China, a person who bet $1,000 on Kalshi that he would walks away with $1,064
Trump will mention “million,” “billion,” or “trillion” more than 15 times, according to 85% of bettors — which is even more likely than the president saying “Mr. Speaker,” in reference to House Speaker Rep. Mike Johnson, which 84% of wagerers believe will be used, according to the platforms.
A brave 7% of bettors believe Trump will use the word “discombobulator,” which is the president’s name for the high-tech weapon used in the daring raid on Venezuela’s deposed dictator, Nicolas Maduro.
If President Trump were to use the word “discombobulator,” a person betting $1,000 on Kalshi would walk away with $14,286.
Gamblers aren’t taking too many chances on other phrases, including the popular “six seven;” “no, no, no,” each of which had roughly 10% of the market betting those terms would be uttered.
Jeffrey Epstein in Tuesday’s speech. REUTERS
Only 14% of bettors think Trump will mention “Epstein,” with a person betting $1,000 on Kalshi would walking away with $5,883 if the president mentions him.
It won’t be a family affair, according to Trump watchers on Kalshi, with 75% of gamblers betting that at least one of the president’s five children will not be in attendance.
Other possible attendees who have become the subject of bets are Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and YouTube journalist Nick Shirley, who helped expose the Minnesota Somali fraud scandal — both of whom are roughly 50% likely to attend, according to Kalshi.
The length of the speech is also tempting many gamblers.
Polymarket bettors can pick between six choices for length with categories broken up into 10 minute intervals.
Trump previously delivered three SOTU speeches, going for 1 hour and 20 minutes in 2018; for 1 hour and 22 minutes in 2019, and 1 hour and 18 minutes in 2020, according to Statista.
Tuesday’s speech currently has a 20% of gamblers wagering that it lasts between 80 and 90 minutes, mirroring his other speeches, according to Polymarket.
