It hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for Reform UK in the last week or so. Firstly, there was a row among some of its councillors, culminating in a leaked video of a bust-up. Then came the narrow loss in a Senedd by-election which Nigel Farage’s party was predicted to win. After that, one Reform MP used some poorly chosen words to describe minorities in advertising. But – despite all that, and the best efforts of Labour and the Tories (and the Greens) to steal a march on Reform – all the latest polls keep Farage’s party at the top!
Find Out Now has Reform 15 points ahead of Labour, while Opinium and Techne give Reform a 10-point lead. All three pollsters have stayed consistent with their last poll. YouGov – which tends to mark Reform lower than other pollsters – still has Reform six points ahead of Labour. Truth be told, and despite the best efforts of rivals, Reform has captured the patriot vote, and remains on course for big success in next year’s local elections.
None of this means Reform should be complacent. The Senedd by-election evidenced the threat of tactical voting, something which could deprive Farage of a parliamentary majority.
Next, the council row demonstrated the risk of infighting. This was small beer. But as the Rupert Lowe debacle indicated, Reform’s greatest threat comes perhaps more from within than outside and it’s this that they must address.
A tight ship is also needed with media management. Reform cannot afford to give rivals ammunition with poorly picked words, especially when everything Reform MPs say will be scrutinised so much.
The polls still show a whopping lead for Reform, even after other party conferences, and a new Green leader joined the scene.
Still, infighting and poor messaging risk undermining what Reform is fighting for, driving away much of Middle Britain, and potentially causing tactical voting to deprive the party of a Commons majority.
Reform remains on the march. But it cannot afford to let anything upset the apple cart. After all, its MPs and councillors are its brand ambassadors, as much as they are representatives.
