The Met Office has shared an early outlook for the upcoming winter, suggesting that the season is likely to begin with average or slightly milder weather than usual. While it’s still too early for precise forecasts, this initial prediction points to a less severe start to winter, with temperatures expected to be closer to or above seasonal norms.
This could mean fewer cold snaps and a more manageable transition into the colder months. According to the three-month outlook for October to December, there was a 55 per cent chance that temperatures will be “near average” and 30 per cent that it will be “mild”. Weather experts have warned that the intensity of the upcoming winter may hinge on how the Polar Vortex develops in the coming months.
The Polar Vortex is a large area of low pressure and extremely cold air that surrounds the Earth’s poles, particularly the Arctic in the Northern Hemisphere. It always exists near the poles but becomes stronger during winter. The term “vortex” refers to the counter-clockwise flow of air that helps contain the frigid temperatures within the polar region.
TV weather presenter John Hammond, who has worked for the BBC and Met Office, told Daily Mail: “These high-level westerly winds, which circle the North Pole in winter, are usually strong and help to ‘fence’ cold air into the Arctic.
“But we are currently in the phase of a naturally occurring cycle – known as the ‘Quasi Biennial Oscillation’ – when the polar vortex may be prone to weakening more than in some other winters – enabling cold, Arctic air to spill out and reach us more readily.
“At this range, computer models are unable to reliably identify the extent and timing of these natural cycles.
“It can be tempting to cherry-pick the model runs which show cold outcomes for Britain this winter, but they are not to be trusted. Most computer output currently indicates a mild winter ahead.”
He explained that another factor influencing global weather is La Niña, a cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
When the polar vortex remains weak for an extended period during winter, it can disrupt typical weather patterns and allow frigid air from the Arctic and continental Europe to move southward into Britain. This shift often leads to significantly colder conditions than usual, as the weakened vortex fails to contain the cold air near the poles. As a result, the UK may experience sharp drops in temperature, increased frost, and even snow, depending on how long the disruption lasts.
A Met Office spokeswoman explained the publication that although the chances of a cold spell between October and December are generally low, there is an increased likelihood of colder weather toward the end of that period.
She noted that these forecasts are influenced by global climate patterns, including the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and a developing La Niña. However, when it comes to the polar vortex—which can have a major impact on UK winter weather—she emphasised that current atmospheric conditions don’t necessarily predict how strong or weak it will be later in the season.