Climate change could lead to extreme weather events which could include hailstones as big as 5cm, a new study has found. Climate experts from the Met Office, Newcastle University and the University of Bristol used European-wide simulations to model future changes to hail with global warming.
The study shows that, under a high-emissions scenario, severe hail is likely to become less common, except potentially for very large hail. Severe hail has a diameter of 2cm, while a diameter of 5 cm or more is considered very large. Bigger hailstones cause more damage than smaller ones, and even a small increase in their size could outweigh any benefits from having fewer hailstorms overall.
Study lead author, Dr Abdullah Kahraman said: “Our findings indicate that the effects of climate change on severe thunderstorms are more complex than previously thought, and high-resolution models can produce results that differ significantly from earlier research.
“Society may need to prepare for less frequent, yet more damaging hail events locally, in a 5-degree warmer future.”
Professor Lizzie Kendon, head of climate projections at the UK Met Office and professor of climate science at the University of Bristol, said: “These results are very concerning.
“They imply we need to be prepared for tropical-type hailstorms impacting Europe in the future, associated with very large hailstones that can cause severe impacts.
“This possibility also extends to the UK, although the risk of hail here remains low into the future.”
The team’s analysis shows that the possibility for very large hailstones decreases around central Europe, and that it remains low over the British Isles and Northern Europe land areas. In contrast, it increases in Southern Europe in autumn and winter, balancing decreases in summer and spring.
The occurrence of warm-type thunderstorms in Southern Europe in a future warmer climate could amplify the impact of hailstorms in Italy and surrounding areas, with overall more frequent significant severe hail.
Study co-author, Professor Hayley Fowler, professor of climate change impacts, Newcastle University School of Engineering, believes that society needs to do more to understand the potential for extreme weather events.
She said: “As a society we need to be better prepared for unprecedented extreme events and this study shows that future storms in the Mediterranean could bring giant hail, with devastating impacts. Recent hailstorms have caused significant direct damage to properties and infrastructure, crops, and even aircraft!”
