A major new poll has uncovered a dramatic shake-up in youth voting intentions that could spell serious trouble for both the Tories and the Labour party ahead of the next general election. As the government prepares to lower the voting age to 16, a survey of over 1,100 teenagers by the think tank More in Common for The Sunday Times reveals that 21% of 16 and 17-year-olds say they would back Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana’s movement, Your Party. This new contender would drastically reduce Labour’s lead among these young voters cutting the party’s support from 30% to 24%, and creating a near three-way tie with Reform UK, which stands at 23%.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives lag behind both Labour and Reform UK, with support being at around 13% when factoring in the Corbyn/Sultana party, and slightly higher at 14% without it. Reform UK maintains a consistent 23% support in both scenarios, at second place in the ranking behind the Labour party.
Luke Tryl, the director of More in Common, said: “It seems the fragmentation of politics is not limited to adults. This poll of more than one thousand 16 and 17-year-olds shows that Corbyn’s new party, Reform UK and Labour would be in a virtual three-way tie among this group of soon-to-be voters.”
Meanwhile, the Green Party, traditionally strong with young voters, would also see its share collapse from 14% to just 6%, according to the poll.
The poll uncovered a notable gender split. Boys aged 16 and 17 are nearly twice as likely as girls to support right-wing parties, with 45% of boys favouring Reform UK or the Conservatives compared to 24% of girls.
Reform UK has 25% support from boys versus 19% from girls, while Conservative backing among boys is four times higher than among girls with a massive 20% compared to 5% among girls.
When it comes to personalities, Nigel Farage and Keir Starmer have nearly equal favourability ratings among young people (31% and 29% positive, respectively), while Jeremy Corbyn’s new party leader and Zarah Sultana have more mixed reviews but still hold significant appeal to a core group of young voters. 26% of young voters’ ratings of Jermey Corbyn were positive, 52% said “neither” or that they didn’t know, and 22% of the ratings were negative.
As Starmer moves ahead with plans to give 16 and 17-year-olds the vote, this poll highlights the fragmentation shaping up for the next election particularly among first-time voters.
The new voting age which was announced on July 17, aims to modernise UK democracy, boost youth engagement, and restore public trust by allowing young people who already contribute to society to have a say in the decisions that affect them.
Around 1.5 million 16 and 17-year-olds will be eligible to vote in the next general election, which could have a significant impact on the outcome.
