The coming days have the potential to define President Trump’s place in history. The challenge and the dilemma facing the US President is gargantuan.
Can he compel Tehran to strike a deal that would kill off its chances of ever possessing a nuclear bomb? And if he can’t, does he join Israel in trying to pound Iran’s nuclear capacity to dust?
This is an epic test for a president who came to the White House with the promise to put “America first”. His takeover of the Republican party represented an absolute repudiation of the George W Bush era attempts at “nation building” in Afghanistan and Iraq which came at such immense cost in blood and treasure.
The only country President Trump is interested in rebuilding is his own. His supporters want him to revive America’s manufacturing heartlands; they demand levelling-up on a massive scale and will not be impressed if he directs his attention to the Middle East.
Intervention in Iran could come with a terrible cost. Iranian-backed paramilitary force Hezbollah has suffered colossal losses in Lebanon but retains the capacity to inflict terrifying revenge strikes throughout the world.
The nightmare scenario for the president is getting dragged into a unwinnable war which sees Iran descending into slaughter as the conflict spills across its borders, disrupting trade and causing a spike in energy prices.
For this self-styled ultimate deal-maker, the big prize is getting Iran to sign up to a binding agreement which commands the confidence of Israel. But if Iran’s leaders refuse, there will be immense pressure from deep within the US security establishment for America to use its unparalleled bunker-busting firepower to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
If he steps back he will be lambasted for chickening-out on one of the most important decisions of his presidency. His many critics on both the Left and the Right will accuse him of deserting Israel and allowing Iran to threaten its neighbours with nuclear annihilation.
This would trigger a nuclear arms race in the Middle East with Saudi Arabia racing to get a bomb of his own. A region already rife with the potential for horrific conflict would now endanger the future of the planet.
There are also powerful champions of regime change in the States who admire the extraordinary bravery of Iranians who long for simple freedoms. An intelligent desire to avoid the pitfalls of Iraq, they will argue, does not mean that the United States – a nation founded by revolutionary idealists – should neglect the democratic aspirations of Iranians.
President Trump has already appalled many foreign policy experts with his treatment of Ukraine’s President Zelensky and his softer attitude towards President Putin. Verbal attacks from members of former administrations will not worry the president – but he will be angered if a narrative takes hold that he lacks what it takes to keep his country safe and prosperous.
These are times when the strengths and weaknesses of Britain’s military are exposed. Like the rest of NATO, we wait to see what President Trump will decide to while scrambling to protect our own assets and interests.
Iran has long seen the UK as a perfidious colonial meddler, willing to trample on their sovereignty. Even so, our diplomats will be doing everything they can to persuade Tehran to embrace a deal which spares it days and nights of destruction.
Peace is the big prize. If President Trump can secure such a victory he will deserve that coveted Nobel Prize.